|Topic||Date made||I win if||Opponent||If I win I get||If I lose I pay||Links||Result|
|Autonomous cars||A self-driving car cannot be hailed by general public in ten North American cities by July 2023||Paul Christiano||$500||$500||[Terms]||-|
|Covid-19||There are fewer than 50,000 US deaths from Covid-19 before end of 2020||Jeff Kaufman||200 points*||200 points*||[Terms][Extra]||Loss|
|Life on Mars||If Martian samples returned to Earth by 2030, no evidence for macroscopic life is reported within 5 years||Robin Hanson||$200||$1,000||[Terms]||-|
|AGI doom||[Bet not yet finalized] The world has not ended due to misaligned AI by Jan 2030||Michaël Trazzi||$1,000†||$1,000†||[Terms]||-|
* Since we found it insensitive to wager money, we have bet reputation points, which we value at one dollar per point.
† I pre-paid my $1,000 to Michaël on Nov 1, 2022 [Bet not yet finalized]. If I win, Michaël will pay me CPI-adjusted $2,000 in 2030.