Public Bets

Public Bets


Topic Date made I win if Opponent If I win I get If I lose I pay Links Result
Autonomous cars Apr 5, 2016 A self-driving car cannot be hailed by general public in ten North American cities by July 2023 Paul Christiano $500 $500 [Terms] -
Covid-19 Mar 8, 2020 There are fewer than 50,000 US deaths from Covid-19 before end of 2020 Jeff Kaufman 200 points* 200 points* [Terms][Extra] Loss
Life on Mars May 7, 2021 If Martian samples returned to Earth by 2030, no evidence for macroscopic life is reported within 5 years Robin Hanson $200 $1,000 [Terms] -
AGI doom Nov 1, 2022 [Bet not yet finalized] The world has not ended due to misaligned AI by Jan 2030 Michaël Trazzi $1,000 $1,000 [Terms] -

* Since we found it insensitive to wager money, we have bet reputation points, which we value at one dollar per point.

I pre-paid my $1,000 to Michaël on Nov 1, 2022 [Bet not yet finalized]. If I win, Michaël will pay me CPI-adjusted $2,000 in 2030.