| Topic | Date made | I win if | Opponent | If I win I get | If I lose I pay | Links | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomous cars | A self-delivering car cannot be hailed by general public in ten North American cities by July 2023 | Paul Christiano | $500 | $500 | [Terms] | Win | |
| Covid-19 | There are fewer than 50,000 US deaths from Covid-19 before end of 2020 | Jeff Kaufman | 200 pts* | 200 pts* | [Terms][Extra] | Loss | |
| Life on Mars | If Martian samples returned to Earth by 2030, no evidence for macroscopic life is reported within 5 years | Robin Hanson | $200 | $1,000 | [Terms] | - | |
| AGI doom | The world has not ended due to misaligned AI by January 2030 | Michaël Trazzi | $2,000† | $1,000† | [Terms][More] | - |
* Since we found it insensitive to wager money, Jeff and I bet reputation points, which we value at one dollar per point.
† I pre-paid my $1,000 to Michaël on Dec 31, 2022. If I win, Michaël will pay me $3,000 in Jan 2030, which is meant to approximate $2,000 present value.