|Topic||Date made||I win if||Opponent||If I win I get||If I lose I pay||Links||Result|
|Autonomous cars||A self-delivering car cannot be hailed by general public in ten North American cities by July 2023||Paul Christiano||$500||$500||[Terms]||Win|
|Covid-19||There are fewer than 50,000 US deaths from Covid-19 before end of 2020||Jeff Kaufman||200 pts*||200 pts*||[Terms][Extra]||Loss|
|Life on Mars||If Martian samples returned to Earth by 2030, no evidence for macroscopic life is reported within 5 years||Robin Hanson||$200||$1,000||[Terms]||-|
|AGI doom||The world has not ended due to misaligned AI by January 2030||Michaël Trazzi||$2,000†||$1,000†||[Terms][More]||-|
* Since we found it insensitive to wager money, Jeff and I bet reputation points, which we value at one dollar per point.
† I pre-paid my $1,000 to Michaël on Dec 31, 2022. If I win, Michaël will pay me $3,000 in Jan 2030, which is meant to approximate $2,000 present value.